An application of geoinformatics and Markov chain model to study land use changes : A case study of Nong Yai district, Chon Buri province

Abstract

This study aims to identify and compare the usefulness of land around Nong Yai District, Chon Buri Province in 2003, 2006 and 2009. This research data are classified by the Visual Interpretation classification and Applied of Markov Chain and CA Markov model to study the pattern of land use changes in the period of 2003-2009 and to predict the trends of land use in 2012. The total area of Nong Yai District is around 456.01 square kilometers. Equivalent to 285,006 rai. In this study, the land use area can be classified into 10 classes including water source, forest, cassavas, pineapples, palm trees, rubber trees, sugar canes, fruit trees, habitats and others. The data analysis during the year of 2003-2006 showed that the total area of 86.90 square kilometers representing 19.06 percent, compared with the whole proportion of the area has changed. Among the changes, it was found that the sugar canes have the biggest change, as evident from the increased area of around 19.91 square kilometers representing 22.91 percent. Other area have the most reduction indicated  by the area of around 38.81 square kilometers representing 44.66 percent. During  the year of 2006-2009, the total changed area was found to be around 39 square kilometers representing 8.55 percent. From the total changed areas, the palm trees area was changed the most. The increasing area was equal to 10.45 square kilometers representing 26.79 percent. Additionally, the most decrease was cassava trees area being around 8.78 square kilometers Representing 22.51 percent of the total area. The data of land use in the year 2003 and 2006 were analyzed by the CA Markov model to predict and analyze the land use in 2009. After that the data were used to compare the land use with Visual Interpretation to analyze the model. The results indicated the difference of area approximately 66.82 square kilometers representing 14.65 percent. The accuracy of the result of the model analysis is a square matrix of error showing that the model of 76.84 percent are accurate. Therefore,  the Markov Chain model is appropriate for predicting the trend of land use change in Nong Yai District Chon Buri Province in the year 2012.